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A simple model of three economies with two currencies: the eurozone and the USA

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  • Wynne Godley
  • Marc Lavoie

Abstract

This paper presents a Keynesian model which describes three countries trading merchandise and financial assets with one another. It is initially assumed that all three countries have independent fiscal policies but that two of the countries share a currency, hence the model can be used to make a preliminary analysis of the conduct of economic policy in 'the eurozone' vis-à-vis the rest of the world--'the USA'. The main conclusion will be that, if all three countries do indeed operate independent fiscal policies, the system will work under a floating currency regime, but only so long as the European central bank is prepared to modify the structure of its assets by accumulating an ever rising proportion of bills issued by any 'weak' euro country. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2007. "A simple model of three economies with two currencies: the eurozone and the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:31:y:2007:i:1:p:1-23
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bel010
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    3. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    4. Greg Hannsgen & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, 2012. "Fiscal Traps and Macro Policy after the Eurozone Crisis," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_127, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Gräbner-Radkowitsch, Claudius & Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Landesmann, Michael & Schütz, Bernhard, 2022. "The evolution of debtor-creditor relationships within a monetary union: Trade imbalances, excess reserves and economic policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 262-289.
    6. Tim Jackson & Ben Drake & Peter Victor & Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Foundations for an Ecological Macroeconomics. Literature Review and Model Development. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 65," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47497, February.
    7. Marc Lavoie, 2015. "The Eurozone: Similitudes and differences with Keynes's Plan," IMK Working Paper 145-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Jean-Baptiste Gossé, 2009. "The Real and Financial Implications of the Global Saving Glut: A Three-Country Model," Working Papers hal-00380417, HAL.
    9. Naqvi, Asjad & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2018. "Directed Technological Change in a Post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-188.
    10. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2023. "A prototype regional stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 266-287, May.
    11. Edwin Le Heron & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of migrants' remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 31-54, April.
    12. Bernhard Schuetz, 2022. "Investment booms, diverging competitiveness and wage growth within a monetary union: An AB-SFC model," ICAE Working Papers 138, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    13. Irene Monasterolo & Nepomuk Dunz & Andrea Mazzocchetti & Régis Gourdel, 2022. "Derisking the low-carbon transition: investors’ reaction to climate policies, decarbonization and distributive effects," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 31-71, April.
    14. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
    15. Arslan Razmi, 2018. "Does the demand regime matter over the medium run? Revisiting distributional issues in a portfolio framework under different exchange rate regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 708-736, November.
    16. Fabrício Pitombo Leite, 2015. "Taking Godley's Ratios Seriously," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 508-533, July.
    17. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2018. "Dealing with the consequences of exchange rate misalignments for macroeconomic adjustments in the EMU," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 737-767, November.
    18. Hein, Eckhard & Dodig, Nina, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises: Long-run tendencies," IPE Working Papers 35/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    19. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Wayne, James J., 2014. "A Scientific Macroeconomic Model Derived from Fundamental Equation of Economics," MPRA Paper 59591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ehnts, Dirk, 2016. "The euro zone crisis: What would John Maynard do?," IPE Working Papers 72/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    22. James J. Wayne, 2015. "Predicting Major Economic Events with Accuracy: A New Framework for Scientific Macroeconomic Models," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 419-456, March.
    23. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock†Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.

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