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Assessing Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility

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  • Jeffrey J. Reimer

Abstract

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. Concerns are sometimes raised, however, about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment. This article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating CGE models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets. We show how patterns in the deviations between model predictions and validation criteria can be used to identify the weak points of a model and guide development of improved specifications with firmer empirical foundations. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00977.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 89 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 383-397

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:89:y:2007:i:2:p:383-397

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Cited by:
  1. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Bozic, Marin, 2013. "On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China," Staff Papers 159771, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  2. Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2012. "General Equilibrium as a Topological Field Theory," Papers 1209.1705, arXiv.org.
  3. Barkhordar, Zahra A. & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2013. "Assessing alternative options for allocating oil revenue in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1207-1216.
  4. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  5. World Bank, 2009. "Strengthening Bolivian Competitiveness : Export Diversification and Inclusive Growth," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2656, August.
  6. repec:ags:usao13:148045 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Hussein, Zekarias & Hertel, Thomas & Golub, Alla, 2013. "Climate change, mitigation policy, and poverty in developing countries," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150732, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  8. Beckman, Jayson & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wallace, 2011. "Validating energy-oriented CGE models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 799-806, September.
  9. Lichtenberg, Erik & Strand, Ivar E., Jr., 2000. "Joint Adoption Of Multiple Technologies: A Dual, Latent Demand Approach," Working Papers 28566, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  10. Christophe Gouel, 2011. "Instabilité des prix agricoles et politiques optimales de stabilisation," Working Papers 246504, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.

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