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U.S. Trade Threats: Rhetoric or War?

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  • Mylène Kherallah
  • John Beghin

Abstract

We present an empirical analysis of factors determining trade wars and agreements under U.S. trade law Section 301. A system of two probit equations is estimated using historical data on Section 301 cases to determine which economic and political factors increase the likelihood of trade frictions. The likelihood of trade war increases when the United States's export share in the world market declines, when the United States is less dependent on the market of the targeted country, when foreign policy makers are in an election year, and when negotiations relate to highly protected and unionized industries in the targeted country. Copyright 1998, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Mylène Kherallah & John Beghin, 1998. "U.S. Trade Threats: Rhetoric or War?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 15-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:80:y:1998:i:1:p:15-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Thornsbury, Suzanne, 1999. "Political Economy Determinants Of Technical Barriers To U.S. Agricultural Exports," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21499, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Thornsbury, Suzanne & Roberts, Donna & Orden, David, 2004. "Measurement and Political Economy of Disputed Technical Regulations," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 559-574, December.
    3. John C. Beghin & Heidi Schweizer, 2021. "Agricultural Trade Costs," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 500-530, June.
    4. A. Malek Hammami & John C. Beghin, 2021. "The trade and welfare impacts of the U.S. retaliatory tariff on EU olive oil," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 807-818, September.
    5. Hebatallah Ghoneim & Yasmine Reda, 2008. "The US-China Trade Conflict: A Game Theoretical Analysis," Working Papers 15, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    6. Bown, Chad P., 2004. "Trade disputes and the implementation of protection under the GATT: an empirical assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 263-294, March.

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