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The Comparative Analysis Of Romanian And Hungarian Stock Market Indices And Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Kulcsar Edina

    (University of Oradea, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Tarnoczi Tibor

    (University of Debrecen, Faculty of Applied Economics and Rural Development)

Abstract

Nowadays, when we are witnessing a serious macro-level changes, to deal with financial and economic indicators becomes more and more important in the economy, in particular to evaluate the changes of these indicators and especially their impact to the private sector. This paper aims to analyze in comparison for two countries, in what extent can explain the changes of the most important stock market indices with the fluctuations of those two countries national currency exchange rates in euro. To determinate the relationship between the macro indicators weâ€(tm)ve used traditional statistical methods, namely simple linear regression model and the Bayesian statistics. In case of both Romania and Hungary, the analyses show that there is a relationship between exchange rates and the changes of stock indices. If we compare the analysis results of the two countries, we can see that the relationship between the BET index and Lei/EUR exchange rate is much more stronger than between the BUX index and Ft/EUR exchange rate, in the latter case we can see a much weaker relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulcsar Edina & Tarnoczi Tibor, 2012. "The Comparative Analysis Of Romanian And Hungarian Stock Market Indices And Exchange Rates," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 720-727, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:720-727
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    File URL: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2012/n1/103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oxelheim, Lars & Wihlborg, Clas, 2008. "Corporate Decision-Making with Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Performance and Risk Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195335743.
    2. Lars Oxelheim & Clas Wihlborg, 1995. "Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(3), pages 241-263, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock indices; exchange rate; financial crisis; macro-indicators; Bayesian statistics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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