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The Comparative Analysis Of Romanian And Hungarian Stock Market Indices And Exchange Rates

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Author Info

  • Kulcsar Edina

    ()
    (University of Oradea, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Tarnoczi Tibor

    ()
    (University of Debrecen, Faculty of Applied Economics and Rural Development)

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    Abstract

    Nowadays, when we are witnessing a serious macro-level changes, to deal with financial and economic indicators becomes more and more important in the economy, in particular to evaluate the changes of these indicators and especially their impact to the private sector. This paper aims to analyze in comparison for two countries, in what extent can explain the changes of the most important stock market indices with the fluctuations of those two countries national currency exchange rates in euro. To determinate the relationship between the macro indicators weâ€(tm)ve used traditional statistical methods, namely simple linear regression model and the Bayesian statistics. In case of both Romania and Hungary, the analyses show that there is a relationship between exchange rates and the changes of stock indices. If we compare the analysis results of the two countries, we can see that the relationship between the BET index and Lei/EUR exchange rate is much more stronger than between the BUX index and Ft/EUR exchange rate, in the latter case we can see a much weaker relationship.

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    File URL: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2012/n1/103.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics in its journal The Journal of the Faculty of Economics - Economic.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (July)
    Pages: 720-727

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    Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:720-727

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    Postal: Universitatii str. 1, Office F209, 410087 Oradea, Bihor
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    Web page: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/
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    Related research

    Keywords: stock indices; exchange rate; financial crisis; macro-indicators; Bayesian statistics;

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    1. Lars Oxelheim & Clas Wihlborg, 1995. "Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(3), pages 241-263.
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