This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Potential Growth prospects of the Austrian Economy - Methods and Determinants

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Juergen Janger () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Johann Scharler () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Alfred Stiglbauer () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper we discuss issues related to the longer-run growth prospects of the Austrian economy. We briefly survey methods commonly applied to estimate the growth potential of an economy. According to currently available estimates, the growth rate of Austrian potential output is roughly 2%.We observe that potential growth has slowed down slightly over the past two decades. Turning to prospects for total factor productivity growth, there have been significant improvements over the last ten years with respect to R&D and trade openness. The impact of dynamic agglomeration gains also depends on the transport infrastructure. Product market competition and entry have markedly improved. Austria still has deficits in the areas of higher education and venture capital. By and large, most indicators — at least their growth rates — point towards good prospects for total factor productivity (TFP) growth. As regards labor supply, we show that demographic projections point to a slowdown in the growth of the working-age population, which in turn may lead to declining growth rates of actual and potential output. Such results are often achieved by using growth equations. This approach probably overestimates the negative effect on total GDP growth. The slowdown of labor supply growth can be mitigated by increasing participation rates. Austria has undertaken significant steps to increase the labor market participation of older workers by a series of pension reforms. After a decline in 2002 labor force growth has been rising steadily since 2003. Moreover, female labor supply has been increasing considerably more strongly than male labor supply. JEL classification: E0, J0

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.oenb.at/en/img/mop_2006_q1_analyses02_tcm16-42103.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Monetary Policy and the Economy.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (May 2006)
Pages: 24-52
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2006:i:1:b:2

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Email:
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Manfred Fluch).

Related research
Keywords: potential growth TFP labor market.

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 164, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bartelsman, Eric & Haltiwanger, John & Scarpetta1, Stefano, 2004. "Microeconomic evidence of creative destruction in industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3464, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jacques Mairesse & Pierre Mohnen, 2002. "Accounting for Innovation and Measuring Innovativeness: An Illustrative Framework and an Application," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 226-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Charles I. Jones, 2004. "Growth and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 10767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Astrid Romain & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe, 2004. "The economic impact of venture capital," Working Papers CEB 04-014.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2004. "Entry and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Microlevel Panel Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 265-276, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stephen S. Golub, 2003. "Measures Of Restrictions on Inward Foreign Direct Investment for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 357, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hofer, Helmut & Url, Thomas, 2005. "Growth Effects of Age-related Productivity Differentials in an Ageing Society. A Simulation Study for Austria," Economics Series 179, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ernest Gnan & Juergen Janger & Johann Scharler, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth in Austria — A Call for a National Growth Strategy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 23-46, May. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. "Growth and Agglomeration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 947-68, November.
    Other versions:
  13. Romain, Astrid & van Pottelsberghe, Bruno, 2004. "The Determinants of Venture Capital : Additional Evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrea Bassanini & Ekkehard Ernst, 2002. "Labour Market Institutions, Product Market Regulation, and Innovation: Cross-Country Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 316, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. ?gel de la Fuente & Rafael Dom?ech, . "Human Capital In Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 446.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Ronald M. Albers, 2002. "New technologies and productivity growth in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 122, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2003. "Regulation, productivity, and growth : OECD evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2944, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Aghion, Philippe & Meghir, Costas & Vandenbussche, Jérôme, 2005. "Growth, Distance to Frontier and Composition of Human Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 4860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Samuel Kortum & Josh Lerner, 2000. "Assessing the Contribution of Venture Capital to Innovation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(4), pages 674-692, Winter.
  20. Alpo Willman, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 153, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweimüller, . "Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return-to-Work? Evidence from a ”True Natural Experiment”," IEW - Working Papers iewwp242, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Zoltán Ács & Attila Varga, 2005. "Entrepreneurship, Agglomeration and Technological Change," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 323-334, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-52, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Mansfield, Edwin, 1991. "Academic research and industrial innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  27. Nicola Brandt & Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval, 2005. "Assessing the OECD Jobs Strategy: Past Developments and Reforms," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 429, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  28. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to use our services.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-17.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.