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How fused is the euro area core?: An evaluation of growth cycle co-movement and synchronization using wavelet analysis

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  • Patrick M. Crowley

    ()

  • David G. Mayes

Abstract

This paper uses several recent advances in time-varying spectral methods to analyse the growth cycles of the core of the euro area in terms of frequency content and phasing of cycles. There are two main findings. First that coherence and phasing between the three core members of the euro area (France, Germany and Italy) continue to differ, and that for France they increased in the 1990s but not noticeably since the launch of the euro. Second that similarities vary considerably according to the length of cycle. They are high for low frequencies but lower at traditional business cycle frequencies. Simply looking at business cycles loses much of the detail of the extent of co-movement in different frequency cycles within the euro area.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art4-en
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2008 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 63-95

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5ksnlxp3455h

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Related research

Keywords: Time-varying Spectral Analysis; Coherence; Phase; Business Cycles; EMU; Growth Cycles; Wavelet Analysis;

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Cited by:
  1. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
  2. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
  3. António Rua & Artur Silva Lopes, 2012. "Cohesion within the euro area and the U. S.: a wavelet-based view," Working Papers w201204, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Pedro C. Magalhães & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "On Waves in War and Elections Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series," NIPE Working Papers 1/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
  6. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
  7. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Teresa Maria Rodrigues & Maria Joana Soares, 2012. "Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area," NIPE Working Papers 07/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  8. António Rua, 2012. "Wavelets in economics," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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