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Policy challenges for the next 50 years

Author

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  • Henrik Braconier
  • Giuseppe Nicoletti
  • Ben Westmore

Abstract

This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. It highlights the growing need for international policy coordination and cooperation in a number of areas. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on the diffusion of knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies and heightened international cooperation can address these and other interlinked challenges over the coming 50 years. JEL classification: F, H, I2, I3, J1, O3, O4, Q5 Keywords: Global economy, growth, technological change, inequality, income distribution, immigration, environmental damages, climate change, tertiary education, fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, interdependence, co-ordination, projections

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Braconier & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Ben Westmore, 2015. "Policy challenges for the next 50 years," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 9-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecokac:5jrp104kjn5j
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrp104kjn5j
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    3. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    4. Johannes Geyer & Thorben Korfhage, 2015. "Long‐term Care Insurance and Carers' Labor Supply – A Structural Model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 1178-1191, September.
    5. Dan ANDREWS & Chiara CRISCUOLO & Dirk PILAT, 2015. "The Future of Productivity Improving the Diffusion of Technology and Knowledge," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 85-105, 4th quart.
    6. Müge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews, 2015. "Skill Mismatch and Public Policy in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1210, OECD Publishing.
    7. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2017. "Government-sponsored labour-market training and output growth - cyclical, structural and globalization influences," Working Paper series 17-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Long-term Patterns of Trade and Specialisation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1136, OECD Publishing.
    9. Radek Náplava, 2020. "Institutional Quality and Income Inequality: Evidence from Post-Soviet Countries," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 100-112.
    10. Benedikter Roland & Kühne Kjell & Benedikter Ariane & Atzeni Giovanni, 2016. "The Future of Resources: A New Chapter," New Global Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 133-161, July.
    11. Mike Pennock, 2016. "Slower Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being in the Canadian Context: A Discussion Paper," CSLS Research Reports 2016-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    12. Bart van Ark & Dirk Pilat & Klaas de Vries, 2023. "Are Pro-Productivity Policies Fit for Purpose? Productivity Drivers and Policies in G-20 Economies," Working Papers 038, The Productivity Institute.
    13. Gabriel Machlica, 2017. "Enhancing skills to boost growth in Hungary," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1364, OECD Publishing.
    14. Bernadette Biatour & Chantal Kegels, 2015. "Working Paper 06-15 - Labour productivity growth in Belgium - Long-term trend decline and possible actions," Working Papers 1506, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    15. Orsetta Causa & Alain de Serres & Nicolas Ruiz, 2015. "Structural reforms and income distribution," OECD Economic Policy Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
    16. Lichtblau, Karl & Bähr, Cornelius & Millack, Agnes & van Baal, Sebastian & aus dem Moore, Nils & Korfhage, Thorben, 2015. "Zukunft von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft unter Minimalwachstumsbedingungen: Begründungsmuster, Folgen, Handlungsoptionen," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 123324.
    17. Karl Aiginger & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2016. "Österreich 2025: Eine Agenda für erhöhte Dynamik, sozialen Ausgleich und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(8), pages 573-591, August.
    18. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global economy; growth; technological change; inequality; income distribution; immigration; environmental damages; climate change; tertiary education; fiscal consolidation; structural reforms; interdependence; co-ordination; projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • H - Public Economics
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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