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The Slope of the U.S. Nominal Treasury Yield Curve Unemployment and Stability of Wage Determination: United States versus New York State

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  • Jonathan Ohm
  • John Okpara
  • Martina Vidovic
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    Abstract

    We find the Phillips-type model performs well in explaining wage adjustment for US non-farm business, US manufacturing, and NY manufacturing sector, showing a typical adjustment to price inflation expectation and labor market tightness. While the basic wage model shows evidence of a structural shift for the post-1991 period, this is not evident in the adjusted models for both US non-farm business and NY manufacturing, implying that the observed structural shift for the post-1991 period is likely to be the result of model mis-, or under-specification. The effect of the fraction of unemployment due to permanent job loss on wage inflation appears to be manufacturing-specific, while a smaller adjustment to price inflation expectation appears to be state-specific. On the other hand, the significant effect of the percent of adults unemployed appears to be a national phenomenon.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by New York State Economics Association (NYSEA) in its journal New York Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 3-13

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    Handle: RePEc:nye:nyervw:v:41:y:2010:i:1:p:3-13

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    1. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
    3. Duca, John V., 1996. "Inflation, unemployment, and duration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 293-298, September.
    4. Borjas, George J & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Foreign Competition, Market Power, and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1075-1110, November.
    5. Hyclak, Thomas & Ohn, Jonathan, 2001. "Wage inflation and the post-1991 duration puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 97-104, October.
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