Forecasting the New York State Economy with "Terraced" VARs and Coincident Indices
AbstractThis paper introduces "Terraced" Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling, which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts.In an application of our Terraced VAR framework, we have estimated coincident indices of economic activity for the United States, New York State and the six largest metropolitan areas of New York State and incorporated them into Terraced VARs, which forecast the unemployment rate, total non-farm employment, real wages and average hours worked in manufacturing in those regions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by New York State Economics Association (NYSEA) in its journal New York Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 41 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Megna, Robert & Xu, Qiang, 2003. "Forecasting the New York State economy: The coincident and leading indicators approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 701-713.
- Jason Bram & James Orr & Robert Rich & Rae Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eric Doviak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.