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An Under Bias in the Football Betting Market: Fact or Fiction?: A Note

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  • Ladd Kochman
  • Randy Goodwin
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    Abstract

    Betting that total points in a football game will go over or under the Las Vegas number prompts the question whether that number has been inflated to adjust for the documented preference of bettors for the over. If bettors do overbet the over, regular profits should accrue to those betting under the total. Our investigation spanned the 1995-2004 National Football League seasons and found that betting under produced an unimpressive wins-to-bets ratio of 50.4 percent. The lone nonrandom ratio that was not year-specific was the 52.7-percent mark for National Football Conference games over the 2000-2004 years. Once again the market for wagers on football games proved to be remarkably efficient.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by New York State Economics Association (NYSEA) in its journal New York Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 32-36

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    Handle: RePEc:nye:nyervw:v:37:y:2006:i:1:p:32-36

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    1. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P. & Wilson, Mark, 2004. "Efficient markets, fair bets, and profitability in NBA totals 1995-96 to 2001-02," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 624-632, September.
    2. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
    3. Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-86, December.
    4. Russo, Benjamin & Gandar, John M. & Zuber, Richard A., 1989. "Market rationality tests based on cross-equation restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 455-470, November.
    5. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2002. "Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(3), pages 256-263, August.
    6. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2005. "Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 409-415, September.
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