New York Municipal Bonds As a Leading Fiscal Indicator
AbstractThe S&P 500 has often been used as one of the leading economic indicators for predicting overall economic growth. However, there have been few studies done in the area of leading indicators for predicting the fiscal condition of municipalities. In this paper, we used a lagged regression model to compare the S&P 500 with New York municipal bonds as a leading indicator for the overall economic health of municipalities across the nation. We found that the return on New York State municipal bonds is a more reliable leading indicator than the S&P for predicting future returns of municipal bonds across the nation. Since the returns for national municipal bond funds are associated with the outlook for the local economies of all states, this finding suggests that changes in growth expectation or the level of investor confidence in the New York economy may precede that of the nation in general.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by New York State Economics Association (NYSEA) in its journal New York Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 36 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Trzcinka, Charles A, 1982. " The Pricing of Tax-Exempt Bonds and the Miller Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 907-23, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eric Doviak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.