Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Long-run Relationships of Macroeconomic Variables in Nepal: A VAR Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • T. P. Koirala Ph.D.

    ()
    (Nepal Rastra Bank)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper utilizes cointegration procedure of Johansen and Juselius (1990) in estimating the long run economic relationships of macroeconomic variables comprising M2 monetary aggregate, Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Interest Rate (RT) using annual data ranging from 1975 to 2006. Since one cointegrating vector is found to be statistically significant among the variables under consideration, the result is tantamount to deducing the coefficients of Error Correction Model (ECM). In an application of the Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) test to examine the presence of unit roots in the variables prior to the variables used in estimating long run relationships, the ADF sequential search procedure supports an existence of unit roots in all the variables. This paper also estimates the demand for money function in Nepal as an application of long run relationships between the variables using the said procedure. The coefficients of income and interest rate elasticity of M1 so estimated as depicted by the normalized cointegrating vector are in line with theoretical underpinning. Since the coefficients estimated in this paper rely on restricted VAR method that are contrary to the past practices in estimating cointegrating vector using the Engle-Granger (1987) two-step procedure in Nepal, the coefficients are supposed to be robust and consistent owing to the stronger restrictions imposed by cointegrating vector as against the a theoretical VAR approach.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/pdffiles/vol21_art5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department in its journal NRB Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2009)
    Issue (Month): (April)
    Pages: 99-120

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:21:y:2009:p:99-120

    Contact details of provider:
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, May.
    4. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
    7. Andreas Beyer, 1998. "Modelling money demand in Germany," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 57-76.
    8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:21:y:2009:p:99-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Bishnu Prasad Gautam).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.