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Aggregate demand and the slowdown of Brazilian economic growth in 2011-2014 [Aggregate demand and the slowdown of Brazilian economic growth in 2011-2014]

Author

Listed:
  • Franklin Serrano

    (UFRJ)

  • Ricardo Summa

    (UFRJ)

Abstract

This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014. We argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government and was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa, 2015. "Aggregate demand and the slowdown of Brazilian economic growth in 2011-2014 [Aggregate demand and the slowdown of Brazilian economic growth in 2011-2014]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 803-833, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:25:y:2015:i:spe:p:803-833
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Medeiros & Franklin Serrano, 2006. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets under the Flexible Dollar Standard: A Critical View Based on the Brazilian Experience," Chapters, in: Matías Vernengo (ed.), Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Claúdio Hamilton Matos dos Santos & André Gaspar Cieplinski & Débora Pimentel & Gustavo Bhering, 2015. "Por que a Elasticidade-Câmbio das Importações é Baixa no Brasil? Evidências a Partir das Desagregações das Importações Por Categorias de Uso," Discussion Papers 2046, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    3. Mark Weisbrot & Jake Johnston & Stephan Lefebvre, 2014. "The Brazilian Economy in Transition: Macroeconomic Policy, Labor and Inequality," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2014-14, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    4. Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa, 2011. "Macroeconomic Policy, Growth and Income Distribution in the Brazilian Economy in the 2000s," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2011-13, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    5. Daniel Paulon Avancini & Fábio N. P. Freitas & Júlia De Medeiros Braga, 2016. "Investimento E Crescimento Liderado Pela Demanda: Um Estudo Para O Caso Brasileiro Com Base No Modelo Do Supermultiplicador Sraffiano," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 103, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Matías Vernengo (ed.), 2006. "Monetary Integration and Dollarization," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3483.
    7. Bresser Pereira,Luiz Carlos, 2010. "Globalization and Competition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521144537.
    8. Bresser Pereira,Luiz Carlos, 2010. "Globalization and Competition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521196352.
    9. Bernardo Patta Schettini & Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos & Cláudio Roberto Amitrano & Gabriel Coelho Squeff & Márcio Bruno Ribeiro & Rafhael Rocha Gouvêa & Rodrigo Octávio Orair & Thiago Sevilhano, 2011. "Novas Evidências Empíricas Sobre a Dinâmica Trimestral do Consumo Agregado das Famílias Brasileiras no Período 1995-2009," Discussion Papers 1614, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Aldo Barba & Massimo Pivetti, 2009. "Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 113-137, January.
    11. Julia de Medeiros Braga, 2011. "A Inflação Brasileira na Década de 2000 e a Importância de Políticas Não Monetárias de Controle," Discussion Papers 1672, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Freitas, 2021. "The Rate of Surplus Value in Brazil, 1996–2016," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 398-422, September.
    2. Julia Burle Gonçalves, 2018. "Distribuição De Renda E Demanda Agregada No Brasil(1995-2015): Uma Análise De Extensões Aos Modelos Neo-Kaleckianos Pelo Método Var," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 80, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Fatma Bouattour, 2020. "Measuring financial constraints of Brazilian industries: Rajan and Zingales index revisited," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 677-710, August.
    4. Aguiar de Medeiros, Carlos & Trebat, Nicholas, 2016. "Latin America at a Crossroads: Controversies on Growth, Income Distribution and Structural Change," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP22, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    5. Eduardo Mantoan & Vinícius Centeno & Carmem Feijo, 2021. "Why has the Brazilian economy stagnated in the 2010s? A Minskyan analysis of the behavior of non-financial companies in a financialized economy," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 529-550, December.
    6. Grinis, Inna, 2017. "Trend growth durations & shifts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85126, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Campana, Juan Manuel & Emboava Vaz, João & Hein, Eckhard & Jungmann, Benjamin, 2022. "Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries," IPE Working Papers 197/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Iderley Colombini, 2020. "Form and Essence of Precarization by Work: From Alienation to the Industrial Reserve Army at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 409-426, September.
    9. Giuliano Russo & Maria Luiza Levi & Maria Teresa Seabra Soares de Britto e Alves & Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves de Oliveira & Ruth Helena de Souza Britto Ferreira de Carvalho & Lucas Salvador Andriett, 2020. "How the ‘plates’ of a health system can shift, change and adjust during economic recessions: A qualitative interview study of public and private health providers in Brazil’s São Paulo and Maranhão sta," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; demand-led growth; macroeconomic policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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