World Economy in the Long Term: Growth Strategies for the Major Actors
AbstractThis paper analyzes the approach to the global imbalances (and probable global savings deficit) problem in the light of long-term interests of each global actor. It outlines three long-term trends that will change the growth landscape in twenty years to come. Those are population ageing, the rise in household consumption for large developing economies and the next phase of moving production to developing economies. Key long-term interests and structural problems for three key actors — US, EA and China — are identified. The author outlines two long-term scenarios (inflation versus restructuring) of the excess debt and probable savings deficit (a part of the global imbalances problem). The analysis suggests that currently the world economy is on the path to gradual debt restructuring, implying a long period of low economic growth rates.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki" in its journal Voprosy Economiki.
Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
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Web page: http://www.vopreco.ru/eng/year.html
world economy; global financial system; long-term scenarios; economic growth; global imbalances.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
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