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Evaluating Macroeconometric Modelling with Regard to Usefulness: a Survey

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Author Info
Haakon O. Aa. Solheim
Abstract

Macroeconometric models have during the last 40 years played an important role as a tool to guide decision making in public as well as private macroeconomic institutions. However, such models have not been much used in academic circles. We argue that macroeconometric models have problems both with regard to internal and external validity. Although the science of econometrics has partly answered the problem of internal validity, macroeconometric modelling is still dismissed by theorists as inappropriate for theoretical development. We find that the argument over how to evaluate macroeconometric modelling can be viewed as a result of the relationship between observed economic variables and economic theory.

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Article provided by Nordic Journal of Political Economy in its journal Nordic Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 31 (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 3-15
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Handle: RePEc:noj:journl:v:31:y:2005:p:3-15

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Related research
Keywords: econometric models; theory of science;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. J. Bradford De Long, 2000. "The Triumph of Monetarism?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 83-94, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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