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What Determined the Depth of Recession?

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Author Info

  • Gurvich, E.

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia)

  • Prilepskiy, I.

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia)

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    Abstract

    The factors that determined substantial cross-country variation of output decline during the recent recession are discussed. The regression analysis is performed for the sample of 172 economies, as well as for the sub-samples of developing and oil-exporting economies. Regression results indicate that three distinct factors had a significant impact on output decline, viz. financial shocks, trade shocks, and precrisis economic imbalances. Explanatory power of the econometric model obtained is fairly large. The contribution of crisis decline factors to the depth of recession is calculated for the developing and emerging economies on average, as well as for Russia. The results of the analysis are used to provide recommendations for reducing the vulnerability of Russian economy to future crises.

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    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2010-8-55-79r.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by New Economic Association in its journal Journal of the New Economic Association.

    Volume (Year): (2010)
    Issue (Month): 8 ()
    Pages: 55-79

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    Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2010:i:8:p:55-79

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    Related research

    Keywords: crisis decline factors; financial and trade shocks; regression analysis;

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    References

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    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    3. Arezki, Rabah & Ismail, Kareem, 2013. "Boom–bust cycle, asymmetrical fiscal response and the Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 256-267.
    4. Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," IMF Working Papers 09/280, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2008. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century," MPRA Paper 11862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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