What Determined the Depth of Recession?
AbstractThe factors that determined substantial cross-country variation of output decline during the recent recession are discussed. The regression analysis is performed for the sample of 172 economies, as well as for the sub-samples of developing and oil-exporting economies. Regression results indicate that three distinct factors had a significant impact on output decline, viz. financial shocks, trade shocks, and precrisis economic imbalances. Explanatory power of the econometric model obtained is fairly large. The contribution of crisis decline factors to the depth of recession is calculated for the developing and emerging economies on average, as well as for Russia. The results of the analysis are used to provide recommendations for reducing the vulnerability of Russian economy to future crises.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by New Economic Association in its journal Journal of the New Economic Association.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
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crisis decline factors; financial and trade shocks; regression analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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