Duration dependence in the exit from a temporary job: does contract type matter?
AbstractIn order to enhance the flexibility of the labour market and to stress the capabilities to create jobs, a progressive liberalization of flexible contracts has been adopted in Italy during the Nineties. This paper provides a description of the transition patterns of temporary workers towards a stable job, identifying the duration dependence associated with a temporary work experience. In other words, the crucial question is the extent to which temporary contracts represent a stepping stone towards an open ended job and whether the Treu law has modified the traditional pattern in terms of duration dependence. I base my empirical evidence on a longitudinal sample of workers in Italy, using an administrative dataset extracted by the social security archives for the years 1992-2002. Empirically, I adopt a single risk proportional hazard model, employing a piecewise constant baseline hazard. I find that the introduction of Treu law has substantially reduced the positive duration dependence in the probability of moving from temporary to permanent job. Additionally, this result is robust to the adoption of several specifications. However, not all temporary contracts show the same pattern: for instance, TWA employment and apprenticeship (in some time spans) exhibit negative duration dependence after the reform, suggesting a less relevant positive effect of continuous employment on the subsequent career paths.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Società editrice il Mulino in its journal Politica economica.
Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
temporary employment; piecewise constant hazard model; duration dependence; C41; J24; J64.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.