Sovereign risk premia in the Euro Area and the role of contagion
AbstractThis work estimates a reduced model of the determinants of the 10-year yield spreads relative to Germany for 10 Eurozone countries. Results show that since the inception of the 2007 crisis, spreads have exhibited a rising time-dependent component. Country specific estimated responses to financial turmoil highlight three major results: core countries have not been affected by financial contagion during the subprime crisis, and from 2011 onwards, they have benefited from government yield spreads that are lower than what is explainable by the underlying fundamentals. Peripheral member countries (except Italy) - which from the outset of the EMU benefited from underpricing of their economic and fiscal fragility due to the implicit bailout insurance - have suffered from a revision of market expectations since 2010. Italy, penalized by its historically high debt to GDP ratio, has been hit by a rising contagion effect since 2010, which is estimated to account for 180 b.p. of the spread observable in the 1st semester of 2012.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Società editrice il Mulino in its journal Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions.
Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Government Yield Spreads; Sovereign Risk Premia; Financial Crisis; Sovereign Debt Crisis; Contagion (JEL Codes: G12; E43; H63);
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006.
"Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market,"
NBER Working Papers
12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013.
"Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, 06.
- Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or wake-up-call contagion? Another look at the EMU sovereign debt crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 904, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Metiu, Norbert, 2012. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 35-38.
- Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign spreads in the eurozone: which prospects for a Eurobond?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 231-273, 04.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Loriana Pelizzon & Francesco Ravazzolo & Roberto Rigobon, 2013.
"Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe,"
NBER Working Papers
18741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Loriana Pelizzon & Francesco Ravazzolo & Roberto Rigobon, 2012. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Working Paper 2012/05, Norges Bank.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Loriana Pelizzon & Francesco Ravazzolo & Roberto Rigobon, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe," Working Papers 0009, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Pietro Alessandrini & Michele Fratianni & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2012. "External imbalances and financial fragility in the euro area," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 66, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999.
"Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
- Tom Doan, . "HTUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Harris-Tzavalis unit root test for panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.