Inflation and economic growth: a cross-country nonlinear analysis
AbstractThis paper presents new nonlinear regression estimates of the relationship between inflation and economic growth for 80 countries over the 1961- 2000 period, using middle-income and low-income countries. We also consider the four separate decades between 1961 and 2000. The paper consistently finds that higher inflation is associated with moderate gains in gross domestic product growth up to a roughly 15-18 percent inflation threshold. However, the findings diverge when we divide our full data set according to income levels. With the groupings by decade, the results indicate that inflation and growth will be more highly correlated to the degree that macroeconomic policy is focused on demand management as a stimulus to growth. We consider the implications of these findings for the conduct of monetary policy. One conclusion is that there is no justification for inflation-targeting policies as they are currently being practiced throughout the middle- and low-income countries, that is, to maintain inflation with a 3-5 percent band.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.
Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348
economic growth; inflation; monetary policy; regression analysis;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad & H. L. Leon, 2010. "Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model," IMF Working Papers 10/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Gerald Epstein, 2009. "Rethinking Monetary and Financial Policy: Practical suggestions for monitoring financial stability while generating employment and poverty reduction," Published Studies ilo_epstein11_09, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Poomjai Nacaskul & Kritchaya Janjaroen & Suparit Suwanik, 2012. "Economic Rationales for Central Banking: Historical Evolution, Policy Space, Institutional Integrity, and Paradigm Challenges," Working Papers 2012-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
- Epstein, Gerald, 2009. "Rethinking monetary and financial policy : practical suggestions for monitoring financial stability while generating employment and poverty reduction," ILO Working Papers 434439, International Labour Organization.
- Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2007. "Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate," Country Study 6, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.