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Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thirlwall's Law, 1890-1973

Author

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  • LUIS BÉRTOLA
  • HERMES HIGACHI
  • GABRIEL PORCILE

Abstract

The paper offers a time-series test of Thirlwall's Law for Brazil during the 1890-1973 period. The results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP), terms-of-trade, and world income, as Thirlwall's Law predicts. In addition, an error correction model is estimated, which shows that adjusting toward Thirlwall's Law equilibrium explains a substantial part of total variation of real GDP in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Bértola & Hermes Higachi & Gabriel Porcile, 2002. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thirlwall's Law, 1890-1973," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 123-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:123-140
    DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2002.11051348
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    2. Eva da Silva Catela & Gabriel Porcile, 2012. "Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency in a BOP-constrained growth model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 777-802.
    3. Christine Carton Madura, 2009. "Mecanismos kaldorianos del crecimiento regional: Aplicación empírica al caso del ALADI (1980-2007)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 8, pages 1-24, May.
    4. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    5. José Luís Oreiro, 2006. "Capital mobility, real exchange rate appreciation, and asset price bubbles in emerging economies: a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for a small open economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 317-344, January.
    6. Mohammed Al- Mahish, 2017. "Does Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model Hold in Saudi Arabia?," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Alexis Habiyaremye & Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2012. "Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1143-1158, March.
    8. Constantine, Collin & Khemraj, Tarron, 2019. "Geography, economic structures and institutions: A synthesis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 371-379.
    9. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    11. Özer, Mustafa & Malovic, Marko, 2020. "Ball and chain effect: Is Turkey’s growth rate constrained by current account deficit?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    12. Sartorello Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Debating the assumptions of the Thirlwall Model: A VECM analysis of the Balance of Payments for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico," MERIT Working Papers 2020-001, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    14. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 655-687.
    15. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
    16. Elena Spasova, 2016. "Balance-of-payments constraints on Bulgarian economic growth," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 90-108.
    17. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2022. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: an application to the Kazakhstan’s economy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 745-767, December.
    18. Jayme Jr., Frederico G. & Romero, João Prates & Silveira, Fabrício, 2011. "Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.

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