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Unemployment Convergence in Central and Eastern European Countries: Driving Forces and Cluster Behavior

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Mercedes Monfort
  • Javier Ordóñez

Abstract

Employing a nonlinear logistic smooth transition autoregression system and comovement analysis, we find that the German business cycle has acted as a common driver affecting the cyclical behavior of unemployment rates in Central and Eastern European countries. In addition, we identify two convergence clubs in unemployment dynamics. The first comprises the Baltic States, Hungary, and Poland, and the second group of countries is composed of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Interestingly, this classification matches the labor market policies and institutional divergences observed among these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2015. "Unemployment Convergence in Central and Eastern European Countries: Driving Forces and Cluster Behavior," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 259-273, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:1:p:259-273
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1011537
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Kutan, Ali M. & Yaya, Mehmet E., 2017. "Testing the dependency theory on small island economies: The case of Cyprus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2018. "Oil price shocks and unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 164-173.
    4. Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Cristina Martí Barco, 2020. "Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 1177-1196, December.

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