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Determinants of Currency Crises in Turkey

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Author Info

  • Gokhan Karabulut
  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin
  • Ayse Celikel Danisoglu

Abstract

Currency crises have become a serious threat for developing countries, especially since the financial deregulation process and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced two major currency crises. This study aims to predict the determinants of currency crises in Turkey by using an ordered probit model. According to the results, short-term debt/GDP, real exchange rate, deposit interest rates, foreign exchange reserves/imports, and credit/deposit variables are all significant in explaining currency crises in Turkey.

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File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=R3U6257U520R910H
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 46 (2010)
Issue (Month): 0 (May)
Pages: 51-58

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:0:p:51-58

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: crises in Turkey; currency crises; ordered probit models;

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Cited by:
  1. Mustafa Kilinç & Zübeyir Kilinç & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2012. "Resilience of the Turkish Economy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(S5), pages 19-34, November.
  2. Bakis, Ozan & Karanfil, Fatih & Polat, Sezgin, 2012. "Interactions between bank behavior and financial structure: evidence from a developing country," GIAM Working Papers 12-1, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.

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