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Correlated Default Risks and Bank Regulations

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  • Chen, Andrew H.
  • Ju, Nengjiu
  • Mazumdar, Sumon C.
  • Verma, Avinash

Abstract

Bank regulatory design relies critically on bank risk modeling. Traditionally, the bank's aggregate value is assumed to obey an exogenously specified process (e.g., a lognormal diffusion). We demonstrate that this assumption is generally invalid given the truncated and correlated payoff structure of individual bank loans. Instead, the bank's aggregate terminal payoff is significantly (left) fat tailed. This skewness remains even when the bank holds an infinitely large number of loans in its portfolio unless they are uncorrelated. By ignoring skewness in bank payoffs, deposit insurance premia and capital requirements have traditionally been significantly mis-calculated.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Andrew H. & Ju, Nengjiu & Mazumdar, Sumon C. & Verma, Avinash, 2006. "Correlated Default Risks and Bank Regulations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 375-398, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:375-398
    DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0028
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moro Russ A. & Härdle Wolfgang K. & Schäfer Dorothea, 2017. "Company rating with support vector machines," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 55-67, June.
    2. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai, 2019. "The Valuation of Deposit Insurance Premiums Based on a Specific Bank's Official Default Probability," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 23(3-4), pages 141-167, September.
    3. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default [Robust comparative statics in large dynamic economies]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    4. Dermine, Jean, 2015. "Basel III leverage ratio requirement and the probability of bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 266-277.
    5. Kwon, Hyuck-Shin & Bang, Doo Won & Kim, Myeong Hyeon, 2017. "Korean Housing Cycle: Implications for Risk Management (Factor-augmented VAR Approach)," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 39(3), pages 43-62.
    6. Chiang, Shu Ling & Tsai, Ming Shann, 2020. "The valuation of deposit insurance allowing for the interest rate spread and early-bankruptcy risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 345-356.
    7. Peleg Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2019. "The risk spiral: The effects of bank capital and diversification on risk taking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Atreya, Nikhil & Mjøs, Aksel & Persson, Svein-Arne, 2015. "Making Bank: Why High Bank Leverage is Optimal - for the Bank's Shareholders," Discussion Papers 2015/33, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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