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Tax Smoothing with Stochastic Interest Rates: A Reassessment of Clinton's Fiscal Legacy

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Author Info
Lloyd-Ellis, Huw
Zhan, Shiqiang
Zhu, Xiaodong

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Abstract

The return to "sound" fiscal policy after the high budget deficits of the 1980s and early 1990s has been hailed by many as the Clinton administration's most important achievement. We evaluate post-war, U.S. fiscal policy using a generalized tax-smoothing model that allows for stochastic interest rates and growth rates. We show that contrary to conventional wisdom, the evolution of the U.S. debt-GDP ratio during the 1980s was remarkably consistent with the tax-smoothing paradigm. In fact, a more substantial departure occurred during the late 1990s, when the debt-GDP ratio fell more rapidly than predicted by optimal tax smoothing.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 699-724
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:699-724

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  2. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 1996. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Economics Working Papers 170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 4637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. CAMPBELL & Luis VICEIRA, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," FAME Research Paper Series rp5, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Fiscal Shocks and Fiscal Risk Management," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 108, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1992. "Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 250-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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