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Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Intertemporal Optimizing Analysis

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  • Fisher, Walter H
  • Turnovsky, Stephen J

Abstract

The effects of government expenditure on the dynamic evolution of the term structure of interest rates are analyzed in an infinite horizon intertemporal optimizing macroeconomic framework. Three types of disturbances are discussed: unanticipated and anticipated permanent increases, and a temporary decrease. In the case of anticipated future and temporary disturbances, the lead time in the former, and the duration in the latter, are critical determinants of the dynamics. For a very temporary shock, the short-term and long-term rates will diverge in the short run. While most of the analysis focuses on infinitesimally short, and infinitely long bonds, the dynamics of the entire yield curve are also considered. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 24 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-26

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:24:y:1992:i:1:p:1-26

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Wen-ya, 1999. "Government spending, endogenous labor, and capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1225-1242, August.
  2. Koutsobinas, Theodore, 2011. "Animal spirits, liquidity-preference and Keynesian behavioural macroeconomics: An intertemporal framework," MPRA Paper 43027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Fisher, Walter H., 1995. "The composition of government expenditure and its consequences for macroeconomic performance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-786, May.
  4. Stefan F. Schubert & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2006. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 135-161, 05.
  5. X. Wang & Bill Yang, 2012. "Yield Curve Inversion and the Incidence of Recession: A Dynamic IS-LM Model with Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 177-185, May.
  6. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 1995. "Monetary shocks and exchange rate dynamics with informal currency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 211-226.
  7. Leanne Ussher, 1998. "Do Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Working Papers 0005 Classification- JEL:, Department of Economics, Queens College of the City University of New York.
  8. Thierry Warin & Kenneth Donahue, 2006. "The Stability and Growth Pact: A European Answer to the Political Budget Cycle?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0606, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.

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