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Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Intertemporal Optimizing Analysis

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  • Fisher, Walter H
  • Turnovsky, Stephen J

Abstract

The effects of government expenditure on the dynamic evolution of the term structure of interest rates are analyzed in an infinite horizon intertemporal optimizing macroeconomic framework. Three types of disturbances are discussed: unanticipated and anticipated permanent increases, and a temporary decrease. In the case of anticipated future and temporary disturbances, the lead time in the former, and the duration in the latter, are critical determinants of the dynamics. For a very temporary shock, the short-term and long-term rates will diverge in the short run. While most of the analysis focuses on infinitesimally short, and infinitely long bonds, the dynamics of the entire yield curve are also considered. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisher, Walter H & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Intertemporal Optimizing Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:24:y:1992:i:1:p:1-26
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    Cited by:

    1. Koutsobinas, Theodore, 2011. "Animal spirits, liquidity-preference and Keynesian behavioural macroeconomics: An intertemporal framework," MPRA Paper 43027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 1995. "Monetary shocks and exchange rate dynamics with informal currency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 211-226.
    3. Arman Mansoorian & Mohammed Mohsin, 2004. "Monetary policy in a cash‐in‐advance economy: employment, capital accumulation, and the term structure of interest rates," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 336-352, May.
    4. André Fourçans & Thierry Warin, 2007. "Stability and Growth Pact II: Incentives and Moral Hazard," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 51-62.
    5. Thierry Warin & Kenneth Donahue, 2006. "The Stability and Growth Pact: A European Answer to the Political Budget Cycle?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0606, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    6. Fisher, Walter H., 1995. "An optimizing analysis of the effects of world interest disturbances on the open economy term structure of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 105-126, February.
    7. Shigeto Kitano, 2009. "Nominal debt and inflation stabilization," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(4), pages 409-422, December.
    8. Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Money, capital, and real liquidity effects with habit formation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 430-453, May.
    9. Schubert Stefan F. & Turnovsky Stephen J., 2006. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 135-161, May.
    10. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Fisher, Walter H., 1995. "The composition of government expenditure and its consequences for macroeconomic performance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-786, May.
    11. Mark A. Wynne, 1993. "The output effects of government consumption: a note," Working Papers 9320, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Adam Kuèera & Evžen Koèenda & Aleš Maršál, 2019. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    13. X. Wang & Bill Yang, 2012. "Yield Curve Inversion and the Incidence of Recession: A Dynamic IS-LM Model with Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 177-185, May.
    14. Chang, Wen-ya, 1999. "Government spending, endogenous labor, and capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1225-1242, August.
    15. Stefan F. Schubert & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2006. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(2), pages 135-161, May.

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