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Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation

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Author Info
Kiguel, Miguel A
Abstract

Hyperinflationary processes usually occur in countries with extremely large budget deficits. In models of inflationary finance with rational expectations (e.g., Buiter [1987]), large budget deficits cannot lead to hyperinflation. The purpose of this paper is to reconcile the standard theoretical model with the stylized facts. It shows that by introducing a lag in the adjustment of the money market into the standard inflationary finance model, large budget deficits are indeed the main reason for hyperinflation. The paper also provides an explanation for the ineffectiveness of moderate reductions in the deficit in reducing inflation and argues that fiscal lags can be destabilizing. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 21 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 148-57
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:21:y:1989:i:2:p:148-57

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Sergey Pekarski, 2007. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Working Papers WP13_2007_12, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 376, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate: A Non-Monotonic Tale," NBER Working Papers 13925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mª Jose Gutierrez & Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 200227, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  5. Patrick Honohan, 1994. "The Fiscal Approach to Financial Intermediation Policy," Papers WP049, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  6. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1989. "Inflation and seigniorage in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 289, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Óscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?," Banco de España Working Papers 0607, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  8. Easterly, William & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1992. "Money demand and seignorage - maximizing inflation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1049, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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