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Modelos autorregresivos para la varianza condicionada heteroscedastica (ARCH)

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Author Info
Marc Saez Zafra (Departamento de economía. Universidad Pompeu Fabra)
Jorge V. Pérez Rodríguez (Departamento de Econometría. Universidad de Barcelona.)
Abstract

En el presente trabajo se introduce al lector en los modelos autorregresivos para la varianza condicionada heterocedástica, incidiendo en los problemas que plantean los esquemas más sencillo y sugiriendo diversas soluciones. Se describe el concepto, las hipótesis y los modelos que explican la varianza condicionada en el tiempo desde diversas perspectivas del análisis estadístico: relación lineal o no lineal entre las variables y métodos de estimación de los parámetros. Finalmente, se discuten diversos contrastes que permiten escoger entre diversas especificaciones alternativas. In this paper the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models are introduced to the reader. The problems implied by their different parameterizations are pointed out and the corresponding solutions are suggested. Several statistical perspectives are used to explain the concept, the assumptions and the models that explain the temporal behaviour of the conditional variances. The paper exposed lineal and non-lineal relationships and several methods of estimation of the parameters of the models. Finally, some tests that allow to choose between alternative specifications are described.

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Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 2 (1994)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 71-106
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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:2_3_4

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Related research
Keywords: ARCH Models; Conditional and unconditional variances; time-varying factors;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Matthew L. Higgins & Anil K. Bera, 1990. "A Class of Nonlinear Arch Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-40, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  4. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ng, Victor & Engle, Robert F. & Rothschild, Michael, 1992. "A multi-dynamic-factor model for stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 245-266. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Kraft, Dennis, 1984. "Combining competing forecasts of inflation using a bivariate arch model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 151-165, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Nelson, Daniel B., 1992. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models I : Getting the right variance with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 61-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Robert Engle & Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Modelling the persistence of conditional variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September. [Downloadable!]
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