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Assessing social carrying capacity of tourism destinations with random utility models/Evaluación de la capacidad de carga social de los destinos turísticos con modelos de utilidad aleatoria

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  • EUGENIO-MARTIN, JUAN L.

    ()
    (Instituto Universitario de Turismo y Desarrollo Económico Sostenible (TIDES), UNIVERSIDAD DE LAS PALMAS DE GRAN CANARIA, ESPAÑA.)

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    Abstract

    Some local visitors or tourists avoid visiting resorts because they have experienced or anticipate overcrowding. Hence, policymakers are concerned to monitor congestion levels. The paper proposes the use of the elasticity of the probability of visiting a destination with respect to increases in congestion, from a random utility framework. More precisely, random parameter logit model is estimated. The advantage of this approach is that it captures not only the current level of congestion but other aspects, such as the sensitivity of different destinations towards crowding and different visitors’ concern about congestion and their probabilities of visiting alternative destinations. It is shown that the rate of change of the elasticity increases with the number of visitors, capturing the expected underlying non-linear relationship such that, when the number of visitors is low, the index is also low but increases exponentially with the influx of new visitors. Algunos individuos prefieren evitar ciertos destinos porque han experimentado o anticipan que pueden experimentar congestión en el destino. Por lo tanto, es necesario ser consciente del coste provocado por la congestión social y las diferentes necesidades de distintos visitantes para maximizar su satisfacción en relación a la calidad de la experiencia. Este artículo propone el uso de la elasticidad de la probabilidad de visitar un destino en relación a incrementos en el nivel de congestión. La estimación se basa en un modelo de utilidad aleatoria, en particular, un Modelo Logit Mixto. La ventaja de este tipo de modelización es que es capaz de tener en cuenta no sólo el nivel de congestión sino otros aspectos como la sensibilidad de los distintos destinos hacia la congestión, la heterogeneidad de los visitantes en relación al nivel de congestión, y la posibilidad de escoger otros destinos. Este método muestra que la tasa de crecimiento de la elasticidad sigue creciendo ante el incremento de turistas o visitantes, lo que permite capturar la relación latente del modelo que consiste en que cuando el número de turistas sea bajo el índice sea bajo y que crezca exponencialmente con la llegada de turistas.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
    Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
    Pages: 881-902

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:29_3_11

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    Related research

    Keywords: Congestión; capacidad de carga; elección del destino; elasticidad; turismo. ; Congestion; Carrying Capacity; Destination Choice; Elasticity; Tourism.;

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    References

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