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Estimación de los flujos de transporte de mercancías interregionales trimestrales mediante técnicas de interpolación temporal/Estimating Quarterly Interregional Commodity Transport Flows by Means of Temporal Interpolation Methods

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Author Info

  • GALLEGO LÓPEZ, NURIA

    ()
    (Departamento de Análisis Económico e Instituto L.R.Klein-CEPREDE.)

  • LLANO VERDURAS, CARLOS

    ()
    (Departamento de Análisis Económico e Instituto L.R.Klein-CEPREDE.)

  • PEREZ GARCÍA, JULIAN

    ()
    (Profesor de la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid e investigador del Instituto L. R. Klein.)

Abstract

En el presente artículo se presenta la metodología y los resultados obtenidos en la trimestralización de los flujos de transporte de mercancías dentro de España. Partiendo de los datos anuales de movimientos de mercancías (1995-2007) según los principales modos de transporte disponibles en la base de datos C-intereg, se estiman los correspondientes vectores de movimientos de mercancías realizados con carácter intra e interregional en cada región con el Resto de España, medidas en unidades físicas (toneladas) para el periodo 1995.I-2009.II. Para ello se utilizan métodos de interpolación y extrapolación temporal de carácter univariante (Chow y Lin, 1971; Denton, 1971) y multivariante (Di Fonzo, 1990, 1994; Di Fonzo y Marini, 2003), aplicados sobre indicadores de alta frecuencia relativos a los movimientos de mercancías en España. Los resultados obtenidos son analizados en comparación con otros indicadores trimestrales de referencia, y la capacidad de predicción del método es evaluada mediante el MAPE para el último año con datos observados (2007). This article presents the methodology and results obtained in the estimation of quarterly interregional transport flows of goods within Spain. Based on annual data on interregional movements (1995-2007) by the main transport modes contained in the C-INTEREG database, we estimates the corresponding vectors for intrarregional and interregional transport flows of each region with the Rest of Spain in physical units (tons) for the period 1995.I-2009.II. We use a combination of univariant (Chow y Lin, 1971; Denton, 1971) and multivariate (Di Fonzo, 1994; Di Fonzo y Marini, 2003) interpolation methods, which are applied to high-frequency indicators concerning the movement of goods in Spain. Then, the results are analyzed in comparison with other quarterly indicators, and the predictive accuracy of the models is evaluated by the MAPE for 2007, the last year with observed data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 699 (38 págs.)

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:28_3_15

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Related research

Keywords: comercio interregional; flujos de transporte; métodos de interpolación temporal; método chow-lin. ; interregional trade; transport flows; temporal interpolation methods; chow-lin method..;

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References

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  1. Ghemawat, Pankaj & Llano, Carlos & Requena, Francisco, 2010. "Competitiveness and interregional as well as international trade: The case of Catalonia," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 415-422, July.
  2. Llano Verduras, C., 2004. "The Interregional Trade in the Context of a Multirregional Input-Output Model for Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-34, Diciembre.
  3. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2000. "The Border Effect in the Japanese Market: Gravity Model Analysis," Discussion Papers 2000-08, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  5. Rossi, Nicola, 1982. "A Note on the Estimation of Disaggregate Time Series When the Aggregate Is Known," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 695-96, November.
  6. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-73, April.
  7. Di Fonzo, Tommaso, 1990. "The Estimation of M Disaggregate Time Series When Contemporaneous and Temporal Aggregates Are Known," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 178-82, February.
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