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La medición del riesgo externo. Un estudio aplicado al caso español en el periodo 1960-2000/The Measurement of External Risk. An Applied Study to the Spanish Case in the Period 1960-2000

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  • SÁENZ RODRÍGUEZ, ESTELA

    ()
    (Departamento Estructura e Historia Económica y Economía Pública. Facultad de Económicas. UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA.)

  • SABATÉ SORT, MARCELA

    ()
    (Departamento Estructura e Historia Económica y Economía Pública. Facultad de Económicas. UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA.)

  • GADEA RIVAS, MARÍA DOLORES

    ()
    (Departamento Estructura e Historia Económica y Economía Pública. Facultad de Económicas. UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA.)

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar una descripción teórica de los indicadores representativos del riesgo externo de una economía, es decir, del riesgo en el ingreso doméstico derivado de los posibles shocks en los mercados internacionales. Además, se calculan dichos índices para la economía española en el periodo 1960-2000, los cuáles muestran en términos generales un incremento de dicho riesgo. Completamos la aplicación empírica con un análisis, en España y en el mismo periodo, de la relación de largo plazo entre las dos dimensiones del riesgo externo: apertura y volatilidad externa. The aim of this work is to theoretically describe the measurement of the external risk of an economy, that is to say, the domestic income risk derived from the possible shocks in the international markets. These measures are calculated for the Spanish economy in the period 1960-2000, which show in general an increase of that risk. We complete the empirical application with an analysis, in Spain and the aforementioned period, of the long-term relationship between the two dimensions of external risk: trade openness and external volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): (Agosto)
Pages: 575 (16 Páginas)

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:27_2_16

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Related research

Keywords: apertura comercial; volatilidad de los términos de comercio; índice de concentración de exportaciones; riesgo externo. ; trade openness; terms of trade volatility; exports concentration index; external risk..;

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  1. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
  3. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
  4. Lutz, Matthias & Singer, H. W., 1994. "The link between increased trade openness and the terms of trade: An empirical investigation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1697-1709, November.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. Muhammad Islam, 2004. "The long run relationship between openness and government size: evidence from bounds test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 995-1000.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  9. Kim, So Young, 2007. "Openness, External Risk, and Volatility: Implications for the Compensation Hypothesis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(01), pages 181-216, January.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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