Obtención de la tasa social de descuento a partir de la tasa de fallo de una distribución estadística: Aplicación empírica/Obtaining the social discount rate from the hazard rate of a statistical distribution: An empirical application
CRUZ RAMBAUD, SALVADOR () (Departamento de Dirección y Gestión de Empresas. Universidad de Almería La Cañada de San Urbano s/n, 04071 (Almería). Telf. +34 950 015 184- +34 950 015 817) MUÑOZ TORRECILLAS, MARÍA JOSÉ () (Departamento de Dirección y Gestión de Empresas. Universidad de Almería La Cañada de San Urbano s/n, 04071 (Almería). Telf. +34 950 015 184- +34 950 015 817)
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El objetivo de este artículo es la obtención de una tasa social de descuento apropiada para valorar proyectos de inversión a largo o muy largo plazo, como suelen ser muchos proyectos gubernamentales y/o medioambientales. La aproximación al problema se llevará a cabo a través de la tasa de fallo de los bienes en los que se va a invertir. En concreto, se ha elegido la inversión en bosques y el incendio forestal como fallo del sistema, considerando la función de distribución Weibull como la más adecuada para modelizar la evolución de la tasa de fallo del sistema. El enfoque de la tasa de fallo responde a la consideración del riesgo asociado a la espera de la recompensa (o vencimiento de los fl ujos netos correspondientes), riesgo que puede ser considerado como fallo del sistema, mortalidad de la población a la que va dirigida la inversión e incluso disminución de la utilidad marginal del ingreso. The purpose of this paper is to obtain an appropriate social discount rate to appraise long-term or very long-term investment projects, as environmental or government projects. The problem will be approached from the hazard rate of goods in which we are going to invest. Specifi cally, we have chosen forestation investment and forest fi re as system fail, using the Weibull distribution in order to modelize the evolution of the system hazard rate. The hazard rate approach considers the risk that waiting for a reward (or the maturity of cash-fl ows) implies. This risk can be considered as the fail of the system, the mortality of the population the project is intended for, or even the decrease of the marginal utility of income.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Martin L. Weitzman, 2001.
"Gamma Discounting,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 260-271, March.
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