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Los siniestros en el seguro del automóvil: un análisis econométrico aplicado/The accidents in the automobile insurance: an applied econometric analysis

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  • MELGAR HIRALDO, M.C.

    ()
    (Departamento de Economía, Métodos Cuantitativos e Historia Económica. Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Ctra. de Utrera, Km. 1; 41013-SEVILLA. Tfno.: 954348548.)

  • GUERRERO CASAS, F.M.
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    Abstract

    Este trabajo tiene como objetivo determinar cuáles son los principales factores determinantes del número de siniestros en el seguro del automóvil, a la vez que comprobar si, como prevé la teoría, las coberturas más elevadas están correlacionadas positivamente con un mayor número de siniestros. Utilizamos en este análisis empírico datos cedidos por una entidad aseguradora privada y aplicamos, para estimar la siniestralidad, un planteamiento reciente de los modelos econométricos tipo count data poco explotado en el seguro del automóvil: el modelo binomial negativo inflado de ceros. De este modo, se consigue distinguir entre las observaciones nulas que corresponden a conductores que no declaran los siniestros que sufren y las que realmente significan que no ocurre ningún accidente. Se concluye qué tipos de vehículos sufren un mayor número de siniestros, a qué uso se destinan y cómo están relaciona-das con la siniestralidad variables como la edad, la experiencia en la conducción del asegurado, la prima pagada o el tipo de cobertura elegida. The objective of this paper is to determine what the most important factors for the number of accidents in the automobile insurance are. We try to verify if the theory is right and the highest levels of coverage are positively correlated with a greater number of accidents. Data used in this empirical analysis have been provided by a private insurance company. In order to estimate the number of accidents, we apply a recent approach for considering count data situations, not very used in the automobile insurance: a zero-inflated negative binomial model. So we can make a distinction between the null observations from drivers that do not declare any accidents and the ones recorded when truly no accident happens. We finally show what types of vehicles suffer a greater number of accidents, what use they are devoted to, and how much related are accident variables and others: the age, the policyholders’ driving experience, the premiums paid, or the different levels of insurance coverage.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2005)
    Issue (Month): (Abril)
    Pages: 355-375

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:23_1_17

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    Related research

    Keywords: Siniestro; Seguro del automóvil; Modelos count data; Modelo binomial negativo inflado de ceros./Accident; Automobile Insurance; Count Data Models; Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model.;

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    1. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
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