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Generación de una proyección de la población española para el período 1996-2025, mediante un modelo de simulación estocástica

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Author Info
CASAS SÁNCHEZ, J.M. () (Departamento de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I. Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Alcalá de Henares.)
GUTIÉRREZ DE MESA, J.L. () (Departamento de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I. Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Alcalá de Henares.)
NÚÑEZ VELÁZQUEZ, J.J. () (Departamento de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I. Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Alcalá de Henares.)

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Abstract

Se trata de elaborar una proyección de la población española, mediante un modelo de simulación estocástica iterativo, a través de la selección de intervalos de crecimiento quinquenales para la esperanza de vida al nacer de las mujeres, así como para el Índice Sintético de Fecundidad (ISF) y el número de inmigrantes. The aim is the construction of a projection of the Spanish population, through a stochastic iterative simulation model, with the selection of growth intervals five-year for the life hope upon born of the women, as well as for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the number of immigrants.

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Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): (Abril)
Pages: 73-90
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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:21_1_6

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Related research
Keywords: Demography; Stochastic Simulation; Populations forecasts.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.


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