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Inflación, Precios Relativos y Crecimiento: Evidencia de América Latina

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Author Info
DABUS, C. () (CONICET y Departamento de Economía. Universidad del Sur.)
VIEGO, V. ()

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Abstract

El trabajo explora el efecto de la inflación y la variabilidad de precios relativos sobre el crecimiento, para una muestra de siete países con historia inflacionaria, en el contexto de tres regímenes inflacionarios: inflación moderada, alta y extrema (muy alta e hiperinflación). Se encuentra que tanto la inflación como la variabilidad de precios relativos afectan negativamente al crecimiento, aunque el impacto de la primera es sustancialmente mayor. Es decir que la inflación en sí, más que sus efectos sobre el sistema de precios, es nociva para la economía.En particular, los resultados sustentan la hipótesis de que la inflación afecta negativamente al crecimiento en los estados de inflación extrema. La relación negativa entre inflación y crecimiento es notablemente clara en términos de la evolución promedio por régimen inflacionario y especialmente en los episodios de inflación extrema. A su vez, los resultados sugieren que existen otros factores asociados al “ruido” propio de los procesos de alta inflación que inciden negativamente sobre el crecimiento. This paper explores inflation and relative prices variability effects on economic growth. Empirical evidence is evaluated for a sample of seven countries with inflationary episodes in the context of three inflationary regimes: moderate, high and extreme (very high and hyper) inflation. We find that inflation and relative prices variability influence growth negatively, and the impact of the former is significantly higher. The negative relationship between inflation and growth is notably evident when analyzing averages by inflationary regime, specially during extreme inflation episodes. In turn, the results suggest that there are other factor associated with the typical “noise” of high inflation process, which affect negatively economic growth.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): (Abril)
Pages: 91-107
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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:21_1_5

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Related research
Keywords: inflación; precios relativos; crecimiento.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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  1. Mariano Tommasi, 1993. "High Inflation: Resource Misallocations and Growth Effects," UCLA Economics Working Papers 704, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Tommasi, Mariano, 1994. "The Consequences of Price Instability on Search Markets: Toward Understanding the Effects of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1385-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Parks, Richard W, 1978. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 79-95, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Domberger, Simon, 1987. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: A Disaggregated Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 547-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gillman, M. & Kejak, M. & Valentinyi, A., 1999. "Inflation, Growth and Credit Services," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9913, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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  7. Robert S. Pindyck & Andres Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 4380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Blejer, Mario I., 1981. "The dispersion of relative commodity prices under very rapid inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 347-356, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mohsin S. Khan & A. Senhadji Semlali, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Blejer, Mario I, 1983. "On the Anatomy of Inflation: The Variability of Relative Commodity Prices in Argentina," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 469-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mariano Tommasi, 1994. "Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices Microeconomic Evidence from High Inflation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 718, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Guy Debelle & Owen Lamont, 1996. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from US Cities," NBER Working Papers 5627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "The effects of inflation on economic growth : Lessons from Latin America," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 417-425, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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