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Inflación y paro. ¿Variables condicionalmente independientes en el sistema macroeconómico?

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  • PALACIOS GONZÁLEZ, F.

    ()
    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Universidad de Granada.)

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    Abstract

    En este trabajo se muestra que en el actual sistema económico español, la inflación y las variaciones de la tasa de paro, a efectos prácticos, pueden considerarse condicionalmente independientes en el corto plazo. En este caso carecería de sentido establecer una relación de causa-efecto entre ambas variables y las curvas de Phillips serían una mera expresión de lo que se conoce como paradoja de Simpson. Como consecuencia las medidas de política económica deberían encaminarse a controlar las causas comunes que producen inflación y paro en lugar de contraponer ambas a modo de dilema. Se analiza la estructura de independencia condicional en un vector aleatorio que considera la inflación, las variaciones trimestrales de la tasa de paro, la variable CVSE que sintetiza el estado de la economía, y el tiempo t. Se utiliza la metodología de regresión no paramétrica para una revisión y modificación parcial de los resultados obtenidos en el análisis de independencia condicional. Se hace una descripción del efecto provocado por la paradoja de Simpson cuando se relacionan inflación y variaciones de la tasa de paro al margen del tiempo en primer lugar, y al margen del tiempo y CVSE en segundo lugar. This paper shows that, at present, inflation and unemployment variations within the Spanish economic system can be regarded as conditionally independent in short term. Being so it would sounds senseless to establish a cause-effect between both variables and Phillips curves would be simply what is known as Sympsom’s paradox. Consequently the economic policy measures should be addressed to control the common causes that produce inflation and unemployment instead opposing both as a dilemma. So the conditional independence structure is analyzed in a random vector containing inflation, quarterly unemployment rates, CVSE variable that synthesis the economy state, and t time. It is used the non-parametric regression methodology to review and modify partially the results obtained in the independence conditional analysis. It is also described the effect provoked by Sympsom’s paradox when both inflation and unemployment rates variations are related each other, at a first time, on the margin of time and, then, on the margin of time and CVSE.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
    Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
    Pages: 87-105

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:19_3_8

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    Related research

    Keywords: Phillips curve; Conditional Independence Structure; Nonparametric Regresión; Simpson’s Paradox.;

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    1. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
    2. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
    3. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    4. Haldane, Andrew & Quah, Danny, 1999. "UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
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