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Las fluctuaciones cíclicas del turismo en Andalucía1

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  • OTERO, J.M.

    (Universidad de Málaga)

  • EQUIPO SAETA
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    Abstract

    En este artículo se pretende caracterizar y analizar las fluctuaciones cíclicas del sector turístico andaluz durante el período 1977-1998 con el fin de extraer algunas conclusiones que sirvan de punto de partida para tratar de anticipar si, después de cinco años consecutivos de crecimiento del sector, nos encontramos al final de una fase de expansión. Entre las conclusiones del estudio cabe destacar las siguientes: (i) el turismo en Andalucía muestra un comportamiento procíclico, presentando un retardo temporal de dos a tres trimestres con respecto a los ciclos de la economía española; (ii) las recesiones del sector turístico son más profundas que las que afectan al PIB español; (iii) el sector turístico andaluz es muy sensible a los acontecimientos socioeconómicos internacionales y (iv) aunque se prevé que durante 1999 el sector seguirá creciendo a tasas similares a las que vienen registrando recientemente. This paper intends to analyse and characterise Andalusian tourism sector cyclical fluctuations for 1977-1998 period, with the purpose to reach some conclusions allowing to anticipate if, after five consecutive years of growth, we are in a turning point. Some relevant conclusions of this research, are the following: (i) Tourism in Andalusia follows the Spanish economy cycles with a temporal lag of two to three terms; (ii) Tourism sector recessions are deeper than those affecting Spanish GDP; (iii) Andalusian tourism sector is very sensitive to international socio economic events; and (iv) Forecasts indicate that during 1999 tourism sector will continue to grow, at similar rates to those recently showed.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

    Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
    Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
    Pages: 129-142

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    Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:13_3_7

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    Related research

    Keywords: Turismo; ciclos; Andalucía;

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