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Un modelo para la industria de papel y cartón en la Unión Europea

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  • CHAS AMIL, Mª L.

    (Dpto. de Métodos Cuantitativos para a Economía e a Empresa. Universidad de Santiago de Compostela)

Abstract

El objetivo principal de este trabajo ha sido modelizar la industria de papel y cartón con el fin de obtener predicciones por países de la Unión Europea de precios y cantidades demandadas, ofertadas, importadas e exportadas de los distintos tipos de papel y cartón para el periodo 1996-2005. El modelo utilizado, PELPS III (Price Endogenous Linear Programming System), es un modelo de equilibrio espacial dinámico basado en métodos econométricos y de programación matemática. Está compuesto de dos fases: una estática y otra dinámica. La solución de la fase estática se obtiene mediante un problema de programación lineal que describe la industria de papel y cartón para un año base (1996) en función de las curvas de oferta y demanda regional, obtenidas mediante métodos econométricos. En la fase dinámica, el problema de equilibrio espacial multiperiodo se rompe en una secuencia de problemas de optimización que se resuelven recursivamente. The main objective of this study is to develop a model for the paper and paperboard industry in order to predict prices and quantities demanded and supplied in the European Union countries from 1996 to 2005. The model used, PELPS III (Price Endogenous Linear Programming System), is a spatial equilibrium model based on econometric methods and mathematical programming. It has two distinct computational phases: a static and dynamic phase. The solution of the static phase is obtained by a linear programming problem which describes the state of the sector at a given point in time. By maximizing the objective function (the net social pay-off), it gives the equilibrium quantities and the corresponding prices that clear all markets at a given point. In its dynamic phase, PELPS III breaks down a multi-period spatial equilibrium problem into a sequence of problems. Thus, the dynamic phase is a succession of static phases, one for each period of forecast.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 12 (1999)
Issue (Month): (Julio)
Pages: 35-52

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:12_2_6

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Keywords: Paper and paperboard; European Union; Partial equilibrium models;

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