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Does Trade Openness Reduce Inflation? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Tahir Mukhtar

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Fatima Jinnah Women’s University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan)

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    Abstract

    One of the more celebrated propositions found in international trade is the case that trade liberalization is associated with declining prices, so that protectionism is inflationary. In line with this view, Romer (1993) postulates the hypothesis that inflation is lower in small and open economies. The objective of this study is to examine Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used multivariate cointegration and a vector error correction model. The study covers the period from 1960 to 2007. The empirical findings under the cointegration test show that there is a significant negative long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which confirms the existence of Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Jul-Dec)
    Pages: 35-50

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    Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:35-50

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    Related research

    Keywords: Trade openness; inflation; cointegration; vector error correction model; Pakistan.;

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    References

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    1. Batra, Ravi, 2001. "Are Tariffs Inflationary?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 373-82, August.
    2. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maria Cristina Terra, 1995. "Openess and inflation: a new assessment," Textos para discussão 339, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    4. repec:wop:syecwp:9703 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78.
    6. Badinger, Harald, 2009. "Globalization, the output-inflation tradeoff and inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 888-907, November.
    7. Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary & Naved Ahmad, 1995. "Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 945-956.
    8. Sachsida, Adolfo & Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Loureiro, Paulo R. A., 2003. "Does greater trade openness reduce inflation? Further evidence using panel data techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 315-319, December.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. William Gruben & Darryl Mcleod, 2004. "The openness-inflation puzzle revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 465-468.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
    12. C. Bowdler & L. Nunziata, 2007. "Trade Union Density and Inflation Performance: Evidence from OECD Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 135-159, 02.
    13. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
    14. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Inflation dynamics and trade openness: with an application to South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    15. Kim, MinKyoung & Beladi, Hamid, 2005. "Is free trade deflationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 343-349, December.
    16. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
    17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    2. Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Ghaderi, Saman & Hosseinzadeh, Ramezan & Nademi, Younes, 2012. "Openness and inflation: New empirical panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 573-577.

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