Diego Agudelo Rueda () (Departamento de Finanzas, Universidad EAFIT) Mónica Arango Arango () (Programa de Ingeniería Financiera, Universidad de Medellín)
Abstract
How does the yield curve incorporate expectations on the Colombian future short-term interest rates? Two theories have been proposed to explain it: the Expectation Hypothesis and the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis. This paper tests both theories for the TES yield curve as well as for the CDT yield curve, using time-series models that account for the persistence and heteroskedasticity of interest rates. The results support the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis, consistent with the fact that in Colombia long-term rates have been consistently higher than short-term rates. However we found evidence of some predictive power of the long-term rates on the future short term rates, consistent with the Expectation Hypothesis.
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Article provided by Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía in its journal LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA.
Volume (Year): (2008) Issue (Month): 68 (Enero-Junio) Pages: 39-66 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates