Evaluating Phillips Curve Based Inflation Forecasts in Europe: A Note
AbstractWe run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves’ goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Credit and Capital Markets in its journal Credit and Capital Markets.
Volume (Year): 46 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.credit-and-capital-markets.de/
Phillips Curve; Forecasting; Europe; RMSE;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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