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Schätzung der Outputlücke

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Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird mit Rückgriff auf Quartals- und Jahresdaten für 14 bzw. 25 Länder gezeigt, dass Revisionen der von der OECD publizierten Outputlücke mit Hilfe von Umfragedaten zur Kapazitätsauslastung erklärt werden können, die bereits zum Zeitpunkt der Erstveröffentlichung vorhanden waren. Unabhängig davon, ob die Daten in Echtzeit gefiltert werden oder nicht, und unabhängig davon, ob wir als Benchmark Schätzungen der Outputlücke heranziehen, die sechs Monate oder ein, zwei oder gar drei Jahre später veröffentlicht werden, deuten die Resultate darauf hin, dass in Echtzeit immer eine bessere Schätzung der Outputlücke möglich gewesen wäre.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2009. "Schätzung der Outputlücke," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(2), pages 55-67, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:55-67
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    2. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), 2005. "Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis," Contributions to Economics, Springer, number 978-3-7908-1605-1, May.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    4. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 93-114, Springer.
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    6. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "A New Method For The Estimation Of Capacity Utilization: Theory And Empirical Evidence From 14 Eu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 361-381, October.
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