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Schätzung der Outputlücke

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Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird mit Rückgriff auf Quartals- und Jahresdaten für 14 bzw. 25 Länder gezeigt, dass Revisionen der von der OECD publizierten Outputlücke mit Hilfe von Umfragedaten zur Kapazitätsauslastung erklärt werden können, die bereits zum Zeitpunkt der Erstveröffentlichung vorhanden waren. Unabhängig davon, ob die Daten in Echtzeit gefiltert werden oder nicht, und unabhängig davon, ob wir als Benchmark Schätzungen der Outputlücke heranziehen, die sechs Monate oder ein, zwei oder gar drei Jahre später veröffentlicht werden, deuten die Resultate darauf hin, dass in Echtzeit immer eine bessere Schätzung der Outputlücke möglich gewesen wäre.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its journal KOF Analysen.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 55-67

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Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:55-67

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Keywords: Strukturwandel; Produktivität; Marktdynamik; Wettbewerb; Innovation;

References

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  1. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "A New Method For The Estimation Of Capacity Utilization: Theory And Empirical Evidence From 14 Eu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 361-381, October.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
  4. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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