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Diskretionäre Fiskalpolitik: Pro und Kontra

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Abstract

Die Schweizer Wirtschaft befindet sich in einer Rezession, von der sie sich nicht schnell erholen wird. In dieser Situation kann die Konjunkturpolitik dazu beitragen, eine selbstverstärkende Abwärtsspirale zu verhindern und soziale Härten abzufedern. Da die Geldpolitik derzeit an Grenzen stösst, hat die Fiskalpolitik an Bedeutung gewonnen. Zwei Stimulierungspakete sind vom Bund bereits beschlossen worden, ein drittes steht zur Debatte. Dargelegt werden hier die positiven Effekte, die von verschiedenen Massnahmen ausgehen können, sowie Argumente, die gegen die Fiskalpolitik aufgeführt werden. Mit dem KOF-Makromodell werden vier alternative Politikvarianten für die Schweiz simuliert und deren Wirkung verglichen. Aus konjunktureller Sicht schneidet dabei eine diskretionäre Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben am besten ab.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its journal KOF Analysen.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 25-43

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Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:25-43

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Keywords: Rezession; Konjunkturprogramme; Multiplikatoren; Simulationen;

References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 0435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming & Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity," IMF Working Papers 02/208, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  6. Berben, Robert-Paul & Brosens, Teunis, 2007. "The impact of government debt on private consumption in OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-225, February.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2009. "Fiskalpolitik als antizyklisches Instrument? Eine Betrachtung der Schweiz," CREMA Working Paper Series 2009-24, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

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