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Die Inflationsneutrale Kapazitätsauslastung und die Phillips-Kurve in der Schweiz – Eine Analyse mit Mikrodaten

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Abstract

Eine hohe Auslastung der Produktionskapazitäten birgt Inflationsrisiken in sich, da übermässig ausgelastete Unternehmen dazu tendieren, die Nachfrage über höhere Preise mit ihren Produktionsmöglichkeiten in Einklang zu bringen. Umgekehrt ist bei einer Unterauslastung mit einer Dämpfung der Inflationsrate zu rechnen. Informationen über die inflationsneutrale Kapazitätsauslastung (NAICU: «non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilisation») sind deshalb für geldpolitische Entscheidungsträger von erheblicher Bedeutung. Die NAICU entspricht der durchschnittlichen Auslastung derjenigen Unternehmen, die keinen Preisanpassungsdruck empfinden. Allerdings ist die NAICU in makroökonomischen Daten nicht beobachtbar, und Schätzungen unterliegen zum Teil sehr restriktiven Annahmen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird ein neuer Ansatz zur Berechnung der NAICU vorgestellt, der frei ist von einer Reihe von Problemen bisher verwendeter Verfahren. Die Schätzung von Phillips-Kurven zeigt, dass die «Kapazitätslücke», d. h. die Abweichung der Kapazitätsauslastung von der nach dem vorliegenden Konzept berechneten NAICU, anderen Indikatoren des realwirtschaftlich bedingten Inflationsdrucks überlegen ist.

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  • Eva Koeberl, 2009. "Die Inflationsneutrale Kapazitätsauslastung und die Phillips-Kurve in der Schweiz – Eine Analyse mit Mikrodaten," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(1), pages 67-78, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:1:p:67-78
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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