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Information Content of Analysts' Stock Ratings and Earnings Forecasts in the Presence of Management Earnings Forecasts

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  • Koji Ota

    (Faculty of Commerce, Kansai University, Japan)

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    Abstract

    This paper evaluates the informativeness of analysts’ ratings and earnings forecast information contained in analyst reports beyond what is publicly provided by management earnings forecasts. Using only analyst reports that have been released practically simultaneously with management forecasts, I find that both analysts’ ratings and earnings forecasts have incremental information content conditional on management forecasts. Further analysis also reveals that analysts’ earnings forecasts are significantly more accurate than concurrently-announced management earnings forecasts. Overall, the findings in this paper present strong evidence that analysts offer informational value to the market beyond information that is provided by company management.

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    File URL: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/tjar/article/vol2/pdf/5.Ota.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its journal The Japanese Accounting Review.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
    Issue (Month): (December)
    Pages: 87-116

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    Handle: RePEc:kob:tjrevi:dec2012:v:2:p:87-116

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    Related research

    Keywords: Analysts’ Roles in Financial Markets; Analysts' Stock Ratings; Analysts' Earnings Forecasts; Management Earnings Forecasts;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Koji Ota, 2010. "The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(1), pages 28-59.
    2. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
    3. Conroy, Robert M. & Harris, Robert S. & Park, Young S., 1998. "Fundamental information and share prices in Japan: evidence from earnings surprises and management predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-244, June.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    5. Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
    6. Robert M. Conroy & Kenneth M. Eades & Robert S. Harris, 2000. "A Test of the Relative Pricing Effects of Dividends and Earnings: Evidence from Simultaneous Announcements in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1199-1227, 06.
    7. Alon Brav & Reuven Lehavy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short-term Informativeness and Long-term Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1933-1968, October.
    8. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    9. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Grossman, Seth, 1986. " Discrete Expectational Data and Portfolio Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 699-713, July.
    10. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    11. Womack, Kent L, 1996. " Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-67, March.
    12. Brad Barber, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, 04.
    13. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
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