Understanding the Interactions between International and Domestic Conflicts: The Case of Turkey and Greece

There is extensive literature on the causes of war and conditions for peace, but as yet no agreement on why countries go to war, why internal violence occurs and how internal and external conflicts might be interconnected or give rise to common dynamics or dilemmas. The present study intends to investigate the variables affecting the probability of domestic and international conflict and the interactions between them by using a system dynamic model. It proposes extensions to an existing conflict model in the literature along several dimensions, e.g., impacts of regime type, income distribution, assertiveness of the military and dyadic interaction between countries. Conducting simulation experiments with this model lets the analysts explore the dynamic behavior and scenarios that result from any change in any of the factors. The model may serve as a useful learning tool for decision-makers, e.g., governments in assessing defense and foreign policies, and company executives in foreign direct investment decisions in different regions of the world. The simulation is run between Turkey and Greece, since Turkey and Greece are the center of attention within the context of the EU enlargement process. One of the simulation results indicate that an international military conflict between Turkey and Greece is highly unlikely in the future, unless both countries increase their military budgets much above the levels in 2000.