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De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist

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Author Info
Robert Nau ()
Abstract

De Finetti's treatise on the theory of probability begins with the provocative statement PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST, meaning that probability does not exist in an objective sense. Rather, probability exists only subjectively within the minds of individuals. De Finetti defined subjective probabilities in terms of the rates at which individuals are willing to bet money on events, even though, in principle, such betting rates could depend on state-dependent marginal utility for money as well as on beliefs. Most later authors, from Savage onward, have attempted to disentangle beliefs from values by introducing hypothetical bets whose payoffs are abstract consequences that are assumed to have state-independent utility. In this paper, I argue that de Finetti was right all along: PROBABILITY, considered as a numerical measure of pure belief uncontaminated by attitudes toward money, does not exist. Rather, what exist are de Finetti's `previsions', or betting rates for money, otherwise known in the literature as `risk neutral probabilities'. But the fact that previsions are not measures of pure belief turns out not to be problematic for statistical inference, decision analysis, or economic modeling. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Theory and Decision.

Volume (Year): 51 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 89-124
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Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:51:y:2001:i:2:p:89-124

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Keywords: Probability; Beliefs; Values; Statistical inference; Decision theory;

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  4. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
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  6. Aumann, Robert J., 1974. "Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 67-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ross, Stephen A, 1987. "The Interrelations of Finance and Economics: Theoretical Perspectives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 29-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Johnstone, 2007. "Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 47-96, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. D. Johnstone, 2007. "The Value of a Probability Forecast from Portfolio Theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 153-203, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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