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The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets

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  • Ghulam Sarwar

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relations between future price volatility of the S&P 500 index and trading volume of S&P 500 options to explore the informational role of option volume in predicting the price volatility. The future volatility of the index is approximated alternatively by implied volatility and by EGARCH volatility. Using a simultaneous equation model to capture the volume-volatility relations, the paper finds that strong contemporaneous feedbacks exist between the future price volatility and the trading volume of call and put options. Previous option volumes have a strong predictive ability with respect to the future price volatility. Similarly, lagged changes in volatility have a significant predictive power for option volume. Although the volume-volatility relations for individual volatility and volume terms are somewhat different under the two volatility measures, the results on the predictive ability of volume (volatility) for volatility (volume) are broadly similar between the implied and EGARCH volatilities. These findings support the hypothesis that both the information- and hedge-related trading explain most of the trading volume of equity index options. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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  • Ghulam Sarwar, 2005. "The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 159-176, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:2:p:159-176
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-005-6335-0
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ferdinand Graf, 2011. "Mechanically Extracted Company Signals and their Impact on Stock and Credit Markets," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-18, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Rajesh Pathak & Kaushik Bhattacharjee & Nagi Reddy V., 2015. "Information Content of Derivatives under Varying Market Conditions and Moneyness: The Case of S&P CNX Nifty Index Options," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 281-302, April.
    5. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Rajesh Pathak & Thanos Verousis & Yogesh Chauhan, 2017. "Information Content of Implicit Spot Prices Embedded in Single Stock Future Prices: Evidence from Indian Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(2), pages 169-187, August.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau, 2011. "Financial Volatility And Derivatives Products: A Bidirectional Relationship," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2011, pages 57-69, july.
    8. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.

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