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The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings

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  • Konan Chan
  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh
  • Theodore Sougiannis

Abstract

Earnings manipulation has become a widespread practice for US corporations. However, most studies in the literature focus on whether certain incentives would facilitate managers to manipulate earnings and there has been little evidence documenting the consequences of earnings manipulation. This paper fills this gap by examining how current accruals affect future earnings (the accrual effect) and measuring the size of this effect. We find that the aggregate future earnings will decrease by $0.046 and $0.096, respectively, in the next one and three years for a $1 increase of current accruals. Over the very long-term (25 years), 20% of current accruals will reverse. This negative accrual effect is more significant for firms with high price-earnings ratios, high market-to-book ratios and high accruals where earnings management is more likely to occur. We show that incorporating the accrual effect is useful in improving the accuracy of earnings forecasts for these firms. Accordingly, the empirical results are consistent with the notion that earnings management causes the negative relationship between current accruals and future earnings. In addition, this paper shows that one recently developed accrual model has better performance than the popularly cited model in identifying manipulated earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Konan Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Theodore Sougiannis, 2004. "The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 97-121, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:22:y:2004:i:2:p:97-121
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Navarro-García, Juan Carlos & Madrid-Guijarro, Antonia, 2016. "Real economic activity and accounting information in Spanish construction and real estate firms," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 21-30.
    2. Juan Carlos Navarro-García & Antonia Madrid-Guijarro, 2014. "The Influence of Improvements in Accounting Standards on Earnings Management: The Case of IFRS," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 24(2), pages 154-170, June.
    3. Nancy Harp & Mark Myring & Rebecca Shortridge, 2014. "Do Variations in the Strength of Corporate Governance Still Matter? A Comparison of the Pre- and Post-Regulation Environment," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 361-373, July.
    4. Frerich Buchholz & Kerstin Lopatta & Karen Maas, 2020. "The Deliberate Engagement of Narcissistic CEOs in Earnings Management," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 167(4), pages 663-686, December.
    5. Donglin Li, 2014. "Dissecting and connecting the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-28, January.
    6. Katsuhiko Muramiya & Tomomi Takada, 2010. "Auditor Conservatism, Abnormal Accruals, and Going Concern Opinions," Discussion Papers 2010-64, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
    7. Tsung-Kang Chen & Yijie Tseng & Yu-Ting Hsieh, 2015. "Real Earnings Management Uncertainty and Corporate Credit Risk," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 413-440, September.
    8. Ehsan Khansalar & Eilnaz Kashefi-Pour, 2020. "The usefulness of the double entry constraint for predicting earnings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 51-67, January.
    9. Javier Gómez Biscarri & Germán López Espinosa, 2008. "Fundamentals and the accruals puzzle," Faculty Working Papers 02/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    10. Cláudia Maria Ferreira Pereira Lopes & António Cerqueira & Elísio Brandão, 2011. "The financial reporting quality effect on European firm performance," FEP Working Papers 403, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    11. Tomás Lopes Ilídio, 2014. "The information compliance indexes: The illustrative case of income taxes," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 59(4), pages 11-37, octubre-d.

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