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Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices

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  • James Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of divergent consumer confidence on option prices. To model this, we assume that consumers disagree on the expected growth rate of aggregate consumption. With other conditions unchanged in the discrete-time Black–Scholes option-pricing model, we show that the representative consumer will have declining relative risk aversion instead of the assumed constant relative risk aversion. In this case all options will be underpriced by the Black–Scholes model under the assumption of bivariate lognormality. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • James Huang, 2003. "Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 165-177, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:165-177
    DOI: 10.1023/B:REDR.0000004822.47039.bc
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. "Option Pricing and the Martingale Restriction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1091-1124.
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    4. Guntar Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterizations of the Pricing Kernel," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-003, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Franke, Günter & Stapleton, Richard C. & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/01, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    6. Günter Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black—Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 3(1), pages 79-102.
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    14. Bick, Avi, 1987. "On the Consistency of the Black-Scholes Model with a General Equilibrium Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-275, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hara, Chiaki & Huang, James & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2007. "Representative consumer's risk aversion and efficient risk-sharing rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 652-672, November.

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