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How long has it been since the last deal? Consumer promotion timing expectations and promotional response

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  • Yan Liu
  • Subramanian Balachander

Abstract

When modeling consumers’ forward-looking behavior using choice data on frequently purchased products, the common approach assumes that consumers have rational expectations about future promotions. Previous studies modeled such expectations using a first-order Markov (FOM) process. However, empirical evidence from several categories suggest that inter-promotion intervals can last several weeks implying that a FOM process that conditions future expectations of prices only on current-period prices can be limiting. We utilize a Proportional Hazard model (PHM) to characterize consumers’ rational expectation of future price promotion. We first show that estimating a dynamic structural model that uses a FOM specification for rational expectations can bias estimates of promotion effects with both simulation analysis and scanner panel data from four consumer packaged goods product categories. Secondly, we empirically show that a structural model employing a PHM specification for promotion expectations fits the data better than ones that assume only a FOM price or promotion expectation. Lastly, we show using an analysis of promotion policy changes that a structural model with a FOM expectation can lead to suboptimal managerial decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Liu & Subramanian Balachander, 2014. "How long has it been since the last deal? Consumer promotion timing expectations and promotional response," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 85-126, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:12:y:2014:i:1:p:85-126
    DOI: 10.1007/s11129-013-9141-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Breugelmans, Els & Campo, Katia, 2016. "Cross-Channel Effects of Price Promotions: An Empirical Analysis of the Multi-Channel Grocery Retail Sector," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 333-351.
    6. Hao Lan & Tim Lloyd & Wyn Morgan & Paul W. Dobson, 2022. "Are food price promotions predictable? The hazard function of supermarket discounts," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 64-85, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Promotion; Promotion expectations; Dynamic discrete choice model; Hazard model; Stockpiling; M3; C23; C25;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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